Universitario 3-1 Deportivo Garcilaso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.29
Draw
23%
4.95
Away
15%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.19
No
56%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
5%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
73%
-11.5pp
23%
Draw
17%
+6.1pp
15%
Away Win
10%
+5.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.6pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Universitario EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 12%
+3% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +26%
1.75/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.60
+9% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +115% / +25%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
365 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 72%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.3
21.5 Crosses 10.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Universitario
0W-3D-0L
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.40 xG 1.59
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
301 Passes 215
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 15
13 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
09.03.2024 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 2-2 HT 1-1 Universitario Universitario PER
20.08.2023 Universitario Universitario 1-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
01.04.2023 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 0-0 HT 0-0 Universitario Universitario PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Universitario
3-1
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
1.86 xG 1.00
69% Ball Possession 31%
14 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 1
424 Passes 140
84% Pass Accuracy 63%
15 Box Touches 8
23 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Universitario vs Deportivo Garcilaso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Universitario saw off Deportivo Garcilaso 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Universitario as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Universitario had 69% of the ball to Deportivo Garcilaso's 31%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 1.86 to 1.00.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Universitario and 1.00 for Deportivo Garcilaso.

What was the final score of Universitario vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Universitario 3-1 Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peru - Premier League on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Universitario vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Universitario win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Universitario 62%, draw 23%, Deportivo Garcilaso 15%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Universitario), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Universitario) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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