Benfica 3-0 Casa Pia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.29
Draw
19%
4.95
Away
16%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.21
Over 2.5
62%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
2.09
No
45%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
4.4
2-3 Goals
40%
1.89
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
2.94
6+ Goals
14%
8.75
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.94 — our 29% vs market 28.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.47
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
24.85
X/1
22%
3.33
X/2
4%
21.45
X/X
9%
7.87
2/1 EV+ ✗
14%
24.0
2/2
6%
17.55
2/X
4%
25.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 14% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
73%
-7.8pp
19%
Draw
17%
+1.7pp
16%
Away Win
10%
+6.2pp
38%
Under 2.5
41%
-3.5pp
62%
Over 2.5
59%
+3.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
44%
+11.0pp
45%
BTTS No
56%
-11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 12%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
2.84/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/2.16
+21% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +108% / -8%
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
476 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 76%
36.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
22.4 Crosses 9.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Casa Pia
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
2.01 xG 0.56
69% Ball Possession 31%
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
631 Passes 236
89% Pass Accuracy 76%
46 Box Touches 12
25 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.03.2024 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-1 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
28.10.2023 Benfica Benfica 1-1 HT 1-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
04.02.2023 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 2-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
13.08.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-1 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
3-0
AWAY Casa Pia
2.50 xG 0.29
63% Ball Possession 37%
27 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 1
12 Corners 2
451 Passes 221
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
49 Box Touches 7
30 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Casa Pia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica cruised past Casa Pia 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (62%) landed while both teams to score (55%) missed.

On the day, Benfica had 63% of the ball to Casa Pia's 37%, shots finished 27-6, expected goals 2.50 to 0.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Benfica and 0.25 for Casa Pia.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Casa Pia?

Benfica 3-0 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Casa Pia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Benfica 65%, draw 19%, Casa Pia 16%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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