Rio Ave 1-0 Farense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
34%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.08
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.8
6+ Goals
8%
16.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 29% vs market 26.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.82
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
7%
4.57
X/2
12%
7.25
X/X
10%
4.34
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
17%
5.43
2/X
8%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-5.0pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.2pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+7.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Farense EU Bookmakers 30%
-2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -1%
1.23/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.27
-23% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
348 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 75%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
21.7 Crosses 19.2
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rio Ave
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Farense
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.42 xG 0.97
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
327 Passes 278
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2024 Farense Farense 1-1 HT 1-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
29.10.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 3-4 HT 2-2 Farense Farense POR
13.12.2022 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-1 HT 1-0 Farense Farense PORLC
23.01.2022 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-1 HT 2-1 Farense Farense POR2
15.08.2021 Farense Farense 1-1 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR2
07.03.2021 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-0 HT 1-0 Farense Farense POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rio Ave
1-0
AWAY Farense
1.36 xG 0.54
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 14
293 Passes 257
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 33
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Rio Ave vs Farense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rio Ave edged past Farense 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and on the day Rio Ave made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Rio Ave had 52% of the ball to Farense's 48%, shots finished 9-18, expected goals 1.36 to 0.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rio Ave had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Rio Ave and 1.33 for Farense.

What was the final score of Rio Ave vs Farense?

Rio Ave 1-0 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rio Ave vs Farense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rio Ave win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Rio Ave 40%, draw 26%, Farense 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rio Ave), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rio Ave) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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