UMF Selfoss 1-2 Fjölnir — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - 1st Division, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.89
Draw
17%
3.8
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
Over 2.5
60%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.43
No
40%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
49%
+4.6pp
17%
Draw
23%
-5.6pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+1.1pp
60%
BTTS Yes
66%
-5.4pp
40%
BTTS No
34%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UMF Selfoss EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Fjölnir EU Bookmakers 32%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -7%
1.37/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.89
-27% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
300 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UMF Selfoss
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Fjölnir
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
09.06.2025 Fjölnir Fjölnir 0-2 HT 0-1 UMF Selfoss UMF Selfoss İZL1
29.07.2023 Fjölnir Fjölnir 2-4 HT 1-1 UMF Selfoss UMF Selfoss İZL1
21.05.2023 UMF Selfoss UMF Selfoss 1-2 HT 1-2 Fjölnir Fjölnir İZL1
27.08.2022 Fjölnir Fjölnir 4-1 HT 1-1 UMF Selfoss UMF Selfoss İZL1
24.06.2022 UMF Selfoss UMF Selfoss 2-0 HT 1-0 Fjölnir Fjölnir İZL1
18.09.2021 UMF Selfoss UMF Selfoss 0-1 HT 0-0 Fjölnir Fjölnir İZL1
POST-MATCH UMF Selfoss vs Fjölnir
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fjölnir edged past UMF Selfoss 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was UMF Selfoss at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for UMF Selfoss and 1.50 for Fjölnir.

What was the final score of UMF Selfoss vs Fjölnir?

UMF Selfoss 1-2 Fjölnir in the Iceland - 1st Division on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UMF Selfoss vs Fjölnir?

Before kick-off our model rated a UMF Selfoss win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split UMF Selfoss 53%, draw 17%, Fjölnir 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (UMF Selfoss) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (UMF Selfoss) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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