Melgar vs Ayacucho FC Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melgar v Ayacucho FC — Team-Based Signals
Melgar vs Ayacucho FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 0-0
Ayacucho FC
PER
0-1
HT 0-0
Melgar
PER
1-1
HT 1-0
Ayacucho FC
PER
0-0
HT 0-0
Ayacucho FC
PER
2-0
HT 1-0
Melgar
PER
Melgar 2-1 Ayacucho FC — Actual Match Statistics
Melgar squeezed past Ayacucho FC 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Melgar as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Melgar had 62% of the ball to Ayacucho FC's 38%, shots finished 20-5, expected goals 1.62 to 0.17 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Melgar's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melgar had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Melgar and 0.83 for Ayacucho FC.
What was the final score of Melgar vs Ayacucho FC?
Melgar 2-1 Ayacucho FC in the Peru - Premier League on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melgar vs Ayacucho FC?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Melgar 68%, draw 18%, Ayacucho FC 14%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.