Nieciecza 2-3 Rakow Czestochowa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 17 Aug 2025

Nieciecza
2-3 HT 1-1
Rakow Czestochowa
📅17/08/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2025/2026

Nieciecza vs Rakow Czestochowa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.46
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
52%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
2.96
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
22%
3.48
6+ Goals
10%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.96 — our 28% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.99
1/2
7%
24.5
1/X
7%
14.5
X/1
7%
7.68
X/2
21%
4.43
X/X
11%
4.64
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.57
2/X
6%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
26%
-1.1pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
52%
Away Win
49%
+2.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nieciecza v Rakow Czestochowa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nieciecza EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 53%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +2%
1.60/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/0.97
+6% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
300 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 74%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.7
17.8 Crosses 23.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Nieciecza vs Rakow Czestochowa Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nieciecza
0W-0D-4L
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.80 xG 2.40
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
388 Passes 204
80% Pass Accuracy 68%
20 Box Touches 29
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.04.2022 Nieciecza Nieciecza 0-3 HT 0-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
01.12.2021 Nieciecza Nieciecza 0-2 HT 0-2 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POLK
23.10.2021 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 3-2 HT 1-0 Nieciecza Nieciecza POL
30.10.2020 Nieciecza Nieciecza 0-2 HT 0-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POLK

Nieciecza 2-3 Rakow Czestochowa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nieciecza
2-3
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
1.05 xG 2.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 10
6 Corners 2
274 Passes 356
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nieciecza vs Rakow Czestochowa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rakow Czestochowa edged past Nieciecza 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Rakow Czestochowa as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Nieciecza had 47% of the ball to Rakow Czestochowa's 53%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 1.05 to 2.33 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Rakow Czestochowa's control.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Rakow Czestochowa led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Nieciecza and 2.50 for Rakow Czestochowa.

What was the final score of Nieciecza vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Nieciecza 2-3 Rakow Czestochowa in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nieciecza vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Nieciecza 24%, draw 24%, Rakow Czestochowa 52%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✗ Under 2.5
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