Pogon Szczecin 0-3 Gornik Zabrze — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.63
No
43%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.54
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.04
6+ Goals
10%
10.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.79
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
9%
12.75
X/1
12%
4.87
X/2
11%
7.04
X/X
11%
5.02
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
23.2
2/2
10%
4.93
2/X
7%
13.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.2 — our 12% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-1.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
57%
-0.3pp
43%
BTTS No
43%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +9%
1.73/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.27
+2% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 76%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
21.3 Crosses 16.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.94 xG 1.11
55% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
385 Passes 323
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
07.02.2025 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-0 HT 1-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
02.08.2024 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
25.05.2024 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-0 HT 0-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
05.12.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-1 HT 0-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POLK
01.12.2023 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-0 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
20.05.2023 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 2-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
0-3
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
1.52 xG 1.82
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 9
319 Passes 287
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gornik Zabrze cruised past Pogon Szczecin 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Pogon Szczecin at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 53% of the ball to Gornik Zabrze's 47%, shots finished 14-20, expected goals 1.52 to 1.82.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.83 for Gornik Zabrze.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?

Pogon Szczecin 0-3 Gornik Zabrze in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Gornik Zabrze?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 46%, draw 27%, Gornik Zabrze 27%. The final score 0-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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