Radomiak Radom 1-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 17 Aug 2025

Radomiak Radom
1-2 HT 1-1
Jagiellonia Bialystok
📅17/08/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2025/2026

Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.38
Draw
21%
3.35
Away
34%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.91
Over 2.5
57%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.68
No
43%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.23
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
24%
3.25
6+ Goals
14%
12.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.64
1/2
9%
27.0
1/X
5%
13.05
X/1
11%
5.55
X/2
9%
5.64
X/X
11%
4.77
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
27.0
2/2
16%
3.73
2/X
5%
13.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.0 — our 13% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
38%
+7.2pp
21%
Draw
26%
-4.8pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-2.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
48%
-5.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
52%
+5.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.5pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Radomiak Radom v Jagiellonia Bialystok — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Radomiak Radom EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 40%
-14% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +8%
1.40/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.43
-4% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
302 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 78%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.6
23.1 Crosses 14.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6

Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Radomiak Radom
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.64 xG 1.45
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
291 Passes 311
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.02.2025 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 5-0 HT 5-0 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom POL
27.07.2024 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom 2-3 HT 0-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
16.03.2024 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom 0-2 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
17.09.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-2 HT 2-2 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom POL
20.02.2023 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom 0-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
06.08.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-2 HT 1-0 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom POL

Radomiak Radom 1-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Radomiak Radom
1-2
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.47 xG 1.47
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
207 Passes 362
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 17
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok nicked a narrow win over Radomiak Radom 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Radomiak Radom at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Radomiak Radom had 40% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 60%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 1.47 to 1.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Radomiak Radom and 2.33 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Radomiak Radom 1-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated a Radomiak Radom win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Radomiak Radom 45%, draw 21%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 33%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Radomiak Radom) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Radomiak Radom) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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