Krasnodar 5-1 FC Sochi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.43
Draw
19%
4.34
Away
16%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.18
Over 2.5
59%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.82
No
41%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.25
2-3 Goals
42%
1.88
4-5 Goals
25%
3.0
6+ Goals
12%
9.12
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.7
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.05
X/1
19%
3.87
X/2
6%
13.5
X/X
5%
6.56
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.9
2/2
5%
11.15
2/X
8%
19.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.9 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
66%
-0.9pp
19%
Draw
20%
-0.3pp
16%
Away Win
15%
+1.2pp
41%
Under 2.5
42%
-0.9pp
59%
Over 2.5
58%
+0.9pp
59%
BTTS Yes
51%
+7.9pp
41%
BTTS No
49%
-7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Sochi EU Bookmakers 18%
+0% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -10%
1.97/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.59
+7% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -12%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
443 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 78%
28.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
19.0 Crosses 15.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krasnodar
6W-0D-0L
AWAY FC Sochi
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.24 xG 1.76
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
366 Passes 339
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
29 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.05.2024 FC Sochi FC Sochi 2-3 HT 1-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
30.07.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-0 HT 1-0 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
15.04.2023 FC Sochi FC Sochi 0-2 HT 0-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
03.09.2022 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-1 HT 0-0 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
05.12.2021 FC Sochi FC Sochi 1-2 HT 1-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
26.09.2021 Krasnodar Krasnodar 3-0 HT 2-0 FC Sochi FC Sochi RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krasnodar
5-1
AWAY FC Sochi
2.80 xG 0.26
71% Ball Possession 29%
24 Total Shots 3
7 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 1
516 Passes 163
86% Pass Accuracy 66%
44 Box Touches 6
24 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Krasnodar vs FC Sochi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krasnodar ran out comfortable winners over FC Sochi 5-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Krasnodar as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Krasnodar had 71% of the ball to FC Sochi's 29%, shots finished 24-3, expected goals 2.80 to 0.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Krasnodar had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Krasnodar and 0.67 for FC Sochi.

What was the final score of Krasnodar vs FC Sochi?

Krasnodar 5-1 FC Sochi in the Russia - Premier League on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krasnodar vs FC Sochi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Krasnodar win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Krasnodar 65%, draw 19%, FC Sochi 16%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Krasnodar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Krasnodar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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