Backa Topola 1-3 OFK Beograd — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.76
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.23
Over 2.5
59%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.5
No
38%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
3%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
18%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
52%
-0.5pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.8pp
24%
Away Win
24%
-0.3pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.2pp
62%
BTTS Yes
62%
-0.9pp
38%
BTTS No
38%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Backa Topola EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY OFK Beograd EU Bookmakers 28%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +27% / +27%
1.87/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/0.89
+30% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / +41%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
368 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 78%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
17.8 Crosses 18.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Backa Topola
1W-1D-1L
AWAY OFK Beograd
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.30 xG 1.49
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
343 Passes 259
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
25 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.05.2025 Backa Topola Backa Topola 3-2 HT 2-2 OFK Beograd OFK Beograd SIRP
23.12.2024 OFK Beograd OFK Beograd 2-2 HT 1-1 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
16.08.2024 Backa Topola Backa Topola 0-1 HT 0-1 OFK Beograd OFK Beograd SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Backa Topola
1-3
AWAY OFK Beograd
1.20 xG 3.62
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 3
344 Passes 230
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Backa Topola vs OFK Beograd
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

OFK Beograd beat Backa Topola 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Backa Topola at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Backa Topola had 58% of the ball to OFK Beograd's 42%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 1.20 to 3.62.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Backa Topola and 1.67 for OFK Beograd.

What was the final score of Backa Topola vs OFK Beograd?

Backa Topola 1-3 OFK Beograd in the Serbia - Super League on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Backa Topola vs OFK Beograd?

Before kick-off our model rated a Backa Topola win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Backa Topola 52%, draw 24%, OFK Beograd 24%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Backa Topola) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Backa Topola) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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