Backa Topola 3-2 OFK Beograd — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-2.9pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.6pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+2.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.6pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Backa Topola EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY OFK Beograd EU Bookmakers 30%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +38% / +38%
1.50/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/0.70
+30% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / +150%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 75%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
20.4 Crosses 18.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Backa Topola
0W-1D-1L
AWAY OFK Beograd
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.04 xG 0.86
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
364 Passes 270
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 18
30 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.12.2024 OFK Beograd OFK Beograd 2-2 HT 1-1 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
16.08.2024 Backa Topola Backa Topola 0-1 HT 0-1 OFK Beograd OFK Beograd SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Backa Topola
3-2
AWAY OFK Beograd
1.81 xG 2.74
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
301 Passes 237
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 31
8 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Backa Topola vs OFK Beograd
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Backa Topola squeezed past OFK Beograd 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Backa Topola as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Backa Topola had 54% of the ball to OFK Beograd's 46%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 1.81 to 2.74 — on chances, OFK Beograd could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, OFK Beograd led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Backa Topola and 1.50 for OFK Beograd.

What was the final score of Backa Topola vs OFK Beograd?

Backa Topola 3-2 OFK Beograd in the Serbia - Super League on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Backa Topola vs OFK Beograd?

Before kick-off our model rated a Backa Topola win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Backa Topola 46%, draw 25%, OFK Beograd 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Backa Topola), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Backa Topola) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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