Novi Pazar 3-3 Kızılyıldız — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.34
Draw
20%
4.34
Away
59%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
Over 2.5
61%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
18%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
13%
X/X
6%
2/1
4%
2/2
35%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
16%
+5.2pp
20%
Draw
20%
+0.1pp
59%
Away Win
64%
-5.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.4pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novi Pazar EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Kızılyıldız EU Bookmakers 69%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +4%
1.68/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.28/1.17
+26% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -20%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
244 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 389 · 82%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.9
19.1 Crosses 22.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novi Pazar
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Kızılyıldız
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 3.83
0.80 xG 2.33
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 9
249 Passes 411
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 34
11 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.04.2025 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız 2-1 HT 2-1 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRBK
15.12.2024 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 1-7 HT 1-4 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız SIRP
10.08.2024 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız 4-1 HT 1-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
17.02.2024 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 0-3 HT 0-2 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız SIRP
02.09.2023 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız 2-1 HT 1-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
12.03.2023 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız 5-1 HT 2-1 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novi Pazar
3-3
AWAY Kızılyıldız
0.72 xG 2.34
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
376 Passes 289
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 28
11 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Novi Pazar vs Kızılyıldız
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novi Pazar and Kızılyıldız couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Kızılyıldız carried 59% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Novi Pazar had 55% of the ball to Kızılyıldız's 45%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.72 to 2.34.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kızılyıldız led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Novi Pazar and 3.83 for Kızılyıldız.

What was the final score of Novi Pazar vs Kızılyıldız?

Novi Pazar 3-3 Kızılyıldız in the Serbia - Super League on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novi Pazar vs Kızılyıldız?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kızılyıldız win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Novi Pazar 21%, draw 20%, Kızılyıldız 59%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Kızılyıldız) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kızılyıldız) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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