Milan 1-3 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 17 Sep 2024

Milan
1-3 HT 1-2
Liverpool
📅17/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Champions League – 2024/2025

Milan vs Liverpool Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.17
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
47%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.23
Over Pick
56%
1.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.51
No
46%
2.39
Total Goals
0-1
23%
4.72
2-3
38%
1.92
4-5
25%
2.84
6+
14%
7.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.06
1/2 ✗
7%
21.85
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
10%
7.75
X/2
16%
4.78
X/X
12%
5.47
2/1
5%
32.5
2/2
24%
2.57
2/X
6%
12.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.85 — our 7% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Milan v Liverpool — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan The Market 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool The Market 51%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +11%
1.29/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.91/1.51
-39% / +67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +37% / -18%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
360 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 426 · 82%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.5
14.7 Crosses 17.8
3.1 Yellow Cards 1.3

Milan vs Liverpool Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Liverpool
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.34 xG 2.51
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 9
321 Passes 449
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 36
12 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
16.12.2022 Liverpool Liverpool 4-1 HT 2-1 Milan Milan HAZ
07.12.2021 Milan Milan 1-2 HT 1-1 Liverpool Liverpool ŞMP
15.09.2021 Liverpool Liverpool 3-2 HT 1-2 Milan Milan ŞMP
31.07.2016 Liverpool Liverpool 2-0 HT 0-0 Milan Milan HAZ
03.08.2014 Liverpool Liverpool 2-0 HT 1-0 Milan Milan HAZ
23.05.2007 Milan Milan 2-1 HT 1-0 Liverpool Liverpool ŞMP

Milan 1-3 Liverpool — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
1-3
AWAY Liverpool
0.61 xG 3.09
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 23
2 Shots on Target 11
2 Corners 5
372 Passes 399
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
18 Box Touches 39
14 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Milan vs Liverpool
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Liverpool saw off Milan 3-1 on their travels. Half-time: 1-2.

The way our numbers pointed is the way it went: our model had Liverpool as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. Nothing to argue with on goals either — over 2.5 goals (56%) came home.

Under the surface, Liverpool saw more of the ball, 51% to 49%, shots finished 8-23, expected goals 0.61 to 3.09.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool led the recent series with 5 wins. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.00 a game for Milan against 2.33 for Liverpool.

Milan vs Liverpool Result & Final Score

Milan 1-3 Liverpool in the Champions League on 17/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Milan vs Liverpool Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Milan 29%, draw 24%, Liverpool 47%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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