Genk 0-1 Sporting Charleroi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 17 Sep 2025

Genk
0-1 HT 0-1
Sporting Charleroi
📅17/09/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2025/2026

Genk vs Sporting Charleroi Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.64
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
19%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.29
Over 2.5
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.63
No
43%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.42
2-3 Goals
42%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
2.76
6+ Goals
12%
7.64
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.01
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.9
X/1
15%
4.3
X/2
6%
10.2
X/X
9%
6.04
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
20.0
2/2
9%
7.51
2/X
5%
15.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.0 — our 12% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
57%
+2.1pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.4pp
19%
Away Win
20%
-0.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+3.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-3.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
57%
+0.3pp
42%
BTTS No
43%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Genk v Sporting Charleroi — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Charleroi EU Bookmakers 23%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +10%
2.12/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.80
-1% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +23%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
405 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 74%
29.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
19.8 Crosses 14.8
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Genk vs Sporting Charleroi Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genk
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Sporting Charleroi
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.73 xG 1.05
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
435 Passes 296
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.02.2025 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 1-1 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL
23.11.2024 Genk Genk 3-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
23.02.2024 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 0-1 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL
20.08.2023 Genk Genk 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL
23.04.2023 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi 2-2 HT 1-2 Genk Genk BEL
04.11.2022 Genk Genk 4-1 HT 2-0 Sporting Charleroi Sporting Charleroi BEL

Genk 0-1 Sporting Charleroi — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genk
0-1
AWAY Sporting Charleroi
0.93 xG 1.03
69% Ball Possession 31%
15 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
524 Passes 195
88% Pass Accuracy 70%
35 Box Touches 18
40 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Genk vs Sporting Charleroi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Charleroi nicked a narrow win over Genk 1-0 away from home.

This one beat our numbers. Genk carried 59% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Genk had 69% of the ball to Sporting Charleroi's 31%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 0.93 to 1.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Genk and 0.67 for Sporting Charleroi.

What was the final score of Genk vs Sporting Charleroi?

Genk 0-1 Sporting Charleroi in the Belgium - Pro League on 17/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs Sporting Charleroi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Genk 59%, draw 22%, Sporting Charleroi 19%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Genk) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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