Caerau (Ely) 2-1 Baglan Dragons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 17 Sep 2025

Caerau (Ely)
2-1 HT 1-0
Baglan Dragons
📅17/09/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Wales - FAW Championship – 2025/2026

Caerau (Ely) vs Baglan Dragons Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
26%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.97
Over 2.5
54%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
6%
2/1
4%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
46%
+4.7pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.5pp
26%
Away Win
30%
-3.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-1.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+1.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.0pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Caerau (Ely) v Baglan Dragons — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caerau (Ely) EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Baglan Dragons EU Bookmakers 33%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -3%
1.83/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.27
+1% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +39%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
322 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 68%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Caerau (Ely) vs Baglan Dragons Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caerau (Ely)
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Baglan Dragons
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
The Meetings
11.01.2025 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 2-1 HT 2-0 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) GALFAW
01.11.2024 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 2-1 HT 0-0 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons GALFAW
20.01.2024 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 2-0 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) GALFAW
06.10.2023 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 3-0 HT 0-0 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons GALFAW
POST-MATCH Caerau (Ely) vs Baglan Dragons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caerau (Ely) nicked a narrow win over Baglan Dragons 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Caerau (Ely) as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Caerau (Ely) and 1.25 for Baglan Dragons.

What was the final score of Caerau (Ely) vs Baglan Dragons?

Caerau (Ely) 2-1 Baglan Dragons in the Wales - FAW Championship on 17/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caerau (Ely) vs Baglan Dragons?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caerau (Ely) win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Caerau (Ely) 50%, draw 23%, Baglan Dragons 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caerau (Ely)), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Caerau (Ely)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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