Al Masry 2-1 Ghazl El Mehalla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 17 Sep 2025

📅17/09/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.09
No
52%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.53
2-3 Goals
39%
1.69
4-5 Goals
17%
4.07
6+ Goals
10%
20.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.53 — our 34% vs market 31.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
12%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-5.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+4.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.7pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Masry EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Ghazl El Mehalla EU Bookmakers 20%
-8% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -5%
1.34/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.35
+0% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +9%
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
364 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 72%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.5
20.6 Crosses 15.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Masry
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Ghazl El Mehalla
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.38 xG 1.02
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
337 Passes 236
76% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.02.2025 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla 1-0 HT 0-0 Al Masry Al Masry MSR
07.06.2023 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla 1-1 HT 1-0 Al Masry Al Masry MSR
20.01.2023 Al Masry Al Masry 1-1 HT 0-0 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla MSR
11.05.2022 Al Masry Al Masry 1-1 HT 0-0 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla MSR
28.10.2021 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla 1-1 HT 1-0 Al Masry Al Masry MSR
14.05.2021 Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla 1-2 HT 1-1 Al Masry Al Masry MSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Masry
2-1
AWAY Ghazl El Mehalla
2.16 xG 1.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 4
307 Passes 210
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 19
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Masry vs Ghazl El Mehalla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Masry edged past Ghazl El Mehalla 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Al Masry as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Al Masry had 57% of the ball to Ghazl El Mehalla's 43%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 2.16 to 1.00.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Al Masry and 1.00 for Ghazl El Mehalla.

What was the final score of Al Masry vs Ghazl El Mehalla?

Al Masry 2-1 Ghazl El Mehalla in the Egypt - Premier League on 17/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Masry vs Ghazl El Mehalla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Masry win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Al Masry 52%, draw 27%, Ghazl El Mehalla 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Masry) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Masry) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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