Cerro Largo 1-0 Deportivo Maldonado — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 17 Oct 2024

📅17/10/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.0
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.45
Over 2.5
41%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.19
No
54%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-6.3pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.6pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+4.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
65%
-5.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
35%
+5.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
+4.4pp
54%
BTTS No
58%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro Largo EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Maldonado EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -14%
1.36/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.52
+8% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
266 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro Largo
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Deportivo Maldonado
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
14.04.2024 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 0-1 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
07.12.2023 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
25.06.2023 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
13.05.2023 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
07.10.2022 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 0-1 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
15.05.2022 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 1-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
POST-MATCH Cerro Largo vs Deportivo Maldonado
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Largo edged past Deportivo Maldonado 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Cerro Largo found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerro Largo had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Cerro Largo and 0.00 for Deportivo Maldonado.

What was the final score of Cerro Largo vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Cerro Largo 1-0 Deportivo Maldonado in the Uruguay - Premier League on 17/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro Largo vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerro Largo win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Cerro Largo 40%, draw 30%, Deportivo Maldonado 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerro Largo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cerro Largo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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17 Oct 2024
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