CA River Plate 0-1 Defensor Sporting — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 17 Oct 2024

📅17/10/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.32
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
46%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
22%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
27%
+1.1pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
46%
Away Win
46%
-0.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.5pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA River Plate EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Defensor Sporting EU Bookmakers 50%
+18% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +11%
1.56/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/0.85
+47% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +29%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
309 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA River Plate
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Defensor Sporting
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
49% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
20.07.2024 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 0-1 HT 0-1 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
14.04.2024 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 2-1 HT 1-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
11.04.2024 CA River Plate CA River Plate 1-2 HT 1-1 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URUK
30.11.2023 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 0-1 HT 0-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
24.06.2023 CA River Plate CA River Plate 1-1 HT 0-1 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
30.04.2023 CA River Plate CA River Plate 0-4 HT 0-3 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA River Plate
0-1
AWAY Defensor Sporting
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH CA River Plate vs Defensor Sporting
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Defensor Sporting edged past CA River Plate 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Defensor Sporting as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, CA River Plate had 54% of the ball to Defensor Sporting's 46%, shots finished 9-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Defensor Sporting led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for CA River Plate and 1.50 for Defensor Sporting.

What was the final score of CA River Plate vs Defensor Sporting?

CA River Plate 0-1 Defensor Sporting in the Uruguay - Premier League on 17/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA River Plate vs Defensor Sporting?

Before kick-off our model rated an Defensor Sporting win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split CA River Plate 28%, draw 26%, Defensor Sporting 46%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Defensor Sporting) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Defensor Sporting) ✗ Over 2.5
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