Mbarara City 1-1 BUL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 17 Oct 2025

📅17/10/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.75
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
44%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
Over 2.5
46%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.29
No
58%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
7%
X/2
16%
X/X
19%
2/1
7%
2/2
25%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
23%
+6.9pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.7pp
44%
Away Win
48%
-4.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
40%
+2.1pp
58%
BTTS No
60%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mbarara City EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY BUL EU Bookmakers 52%
-32% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.27/2.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/0.00
-71% / -50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -55% /
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
291 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mbarara City
1W-1D-1L
AWAY BUL
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 0
29.03.2025 Mbarara City Mbarara City 0-0 HT 0-0 BUL BUL UGA
02.10.2024 BUL BUL 0-2 HT 0-1 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
02.11.2021 BUL BUL 1-0 HT 0-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mbarara City
1-1
AWAY BUL
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mbarara City vs BUL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mbarara City and BUL couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was BUL at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mbarara City had 51% of the ball to BUL's 49%, shots finished 14-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Mbarara City and 0.33 for BUL.

What was the final score of Mbarara City vs BUL?

Mbarara City 1-1 BUL in the Uganda - Premier League on 17/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mbarara City vs BUL?

Before kick-off our model rated an BUL win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Mbarara City 30%, draw 26%, BUL 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (BUL), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (BUL) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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