URA 1-1 Express — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 17 Oct 2025

URA
1-1 HT 1-0
Express
📅17/10/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
12%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
60%
-4.2pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.2pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+3.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.2pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME URA EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Express EU Bookmakers 20%
+2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
1.73/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.46/1.85
+0% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / -22%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
376 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME URA
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Express
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
13.12.2024 Express Express 1-2 HT 0-1 URA URA UGA
06.04.2024 Express Express 1-0 HT 1-0 URA URA UGA
18.03.2022 Express Express 1-1 HT 0-1 URA URA UGA
11.12.2021 URA URA 0-0 HT 0-0 Express Express UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME URA
1-1
AWAY Express
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH URA vs Express
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

URA and Express couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had URA at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, URA had 49% of the ball to Express's 51%, shots finished 11-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for URA and 0.75 for Express.

What was the final score of URA vs Express?

URA 1-1 Express in the Uganda - Premier League on 17/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for URA vs Express?

Before kick-off our model rated a URA win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split URA 55%, draw 25%, Express 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (URA), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (URA) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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