Ceuta 0-2 Alcorcon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 17 Nov 2024

Ceuta
0-2 HT 0-1
Alcorcon
📅17/11/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division B – 2024/2025

Ceuta vs Alcorcon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.61
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.16
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.79
6+ Goals
11%
16.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.79 — our 24% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
11%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
58%
-0.9pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.2pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.5pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ceuta v Alcorcon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceuta EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Alcorcon EU Bookmakers 21%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.77/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.55/1.94
+5% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -21%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
424 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 3.5

Ceuta vs Alcorcon Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceuta
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Alcorcon
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
38% Ball Possession 62%
2 Total Shots 27
2 Shots on Target 10
0 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
26.03.2023 Alcorcon Alcorcon 2-2 HT 1-2 Ceuta Ceuta İS3
23.10.2022 Ceuta Ceuta 1-2 HT 1-0 Alcorcon Alcorcon İS3
POST-MATCH Ceuta vs Alcorcon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alcorcon saw off Ceuta 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Ceuta at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Alcorcon led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Ceuta and 2.00 for Alcorcon.

What was the final score of Ceuta vs Alcorcon?

Ceuta 0-2 Alcorcon in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 17/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceuta vs Alcorcon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ceuta win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Ceuta 57%, draw 21%, Alcorcon 22%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Ceuta), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ceuta) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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