Malta 2-3 Polonya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 17 Nov 2025

Malta
2-3 HT 1-1
Polonya
📅17/11/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
World Cup Qualifiers – 2026

Malta vs Polonya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
6%
7.18
Draw
19%
4.49
Away
75%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.69
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.18
6+ Goals
12%
10.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.69 — our 26% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
2%
15.55
1/2
9%
24.45
1/X
6%
23.55
X/1
3%
17.15
X/2
27%
3.77
X/X
8%
6.62
2/1
2%
35.0
2/2
38%
1.61
2/X
5%
20.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
6%
Home Win
11%
-4.4pp
19%
Draw
19%
+0.2pp
75%
Away Win
70%
+4.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.2pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Malta v Polonya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Malta EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Polonya EU Bookmakers 75%
-13% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
0.81/2.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.14/0.25
-60% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +18%
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
245 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 480 · 85%
12.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.1
10.7 Crosses 22.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.6

Malta vs Polonya Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Malta
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Polonya
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.19 xG 2.91
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 28
3 Shots on Target 12
3 Corners 5
309 Passes 469
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
8 Box Touches 42
11 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.03.2025 Polonya Polonya 2-0 HT 1-0 Malta Malta DKE

Malta 2-3 Polonya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Malta
2-3
AWAY Polonya
2.32 xG 1.79
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
285 Passes 415
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
24 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Malta vs Polonya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polonya squeezed past Malta 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Polonya as the likeliest winner at 75%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Malta had 42% of the ball to Polonya's 58%, shots finished 10-18, expected goals 2.32 to 1.79 — the balance of chances actually favoured Malta.

What was the final score of Malta vs Polonya?

Malta 2-3 Polonya in the World Cup Qualifiers on 17/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Malta vs Polonya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Polonya win the most likely single outcome at about 75%, with the full match-result split Malta 6%, draw 19%, Polonya 75%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Polonya) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Polonya) ✗ BTTS No
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