Leganes 1-0 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 18 Jan 2025

Leganes
1-0 HT 0-0
Atletico Madrid
📅18/01/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Leganes vs Atletico Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.34
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
55%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.16
No OUR CALL
61%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.69
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
4.06
6+ Goals
9%
19.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.69 — our 34% vs market 30.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
11.0
1/2
6%
26.5
1/X
5%
20.15
X/1
9%
11.9
X/2
19%
3.7
X/X
15%
4.93
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
30%
1.93
2/X
5%
17.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
BTTS No — 61% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
16%
+5.4pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.1pp
55%
Away Win
61%
-6.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.9pp
39%
BTTS Yes
42%
-2.7pp
61%
BTTS No
58%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leganes v Atletico Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leganes EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 66%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -19%
1.03/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/0.92
+22% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -2%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
279 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 84%
12.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
14.8 Crosses 16.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7

Leganes vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leganes
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.67 xG 1.48
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
292 Passes 428
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.10.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-1 Leganes Leganes İS1
26.01.2020 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 0-0 HT 0-0 Leganes Leganes İS1
25.08.2019 Leganes Leganes 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
09.03.2019 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-0 HT 0-0 Leganes Leganes İS1
03.11.2018 Leganes Leganes 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
28.02.2018 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 4-0 HT 2-0 Leganes Leganes İS1

Leganes 1-0 Atletico Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leganes
1-0
AWAY Atletico Madrid
0.49 xG 2.42
32% Ball Possession 68%
9 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 9
240 Passes 552
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
9 Box Touches 33
9 Crosses 34
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Leganes vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leganes squeezed past Atletico Madrid 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Atletico Madrid at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Leganes had 32% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 68%, shots finished 9-19, expected goals 0.49 to 2.42 — the balance of chances actually favoured Atletico Madrid.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Leganes and 1.67 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of Leganes vs Atletico Madrid?

Leganes 1-0 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leganes vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Leganes 21%, draw 24%, Atletico Madrid 55%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Atletico Madrid) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İS1 More Spain - Primera Liga
18 Jan 2025
16:00 Girona vs Sevilla Analysis →
20:30 Real Betis vs Deportivo Alaves Analysis →
23:00 Getafe vs Barcelona Analysis →