Girona 1-2 Sevilla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 18 Jan 2025

📅18/01/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
24%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.78
Over 2.5
51%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.94
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.71
6+ Goals
12%
16.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.71 — our 24% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.53
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
15%
4.44
X/2
8%
8.13
X/X
13%
4.49
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
25.0
2/2
12%
6.47
2/X
6%
14.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.0 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
49%
+0.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
24%
Away Win
24%
-0.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.5pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Girona EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sevilla EU Bookmakers 27%
+5% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.80/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.53
+52% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
329 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 79%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
21.0 Crosses 18.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Girona
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Sevilla
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.67 xG 1.22
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
355 Passes 406
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2024 Sevilla Sevilla 0-2 HT 0-1 Girona Girona İS1
21.01.2024 Girona Girona 5-1 HT 3-1 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
26.08.2023 Sevilla Sevilla 1-2 HT 1-1 Girona Girona İS1
01.05.2023 Sevilla Sevilla 0-2 HT 0-1 Girona Girona İS1
14.01.2023 Girona Girona 2-1 HT 0-1 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
28.04.2019 Girona Girona 1-0 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Girona
1-2
AWAY Sevilla
1.01 xG 2.66
60% Ball Possession 40%
7 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
447 Passes 297
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
28 Box Touches 28
23 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Girona vs Sevilla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sevilla squeezed past Girona 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Girona at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Girona had 60% of the ball to Sevilla's 40%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 1.01 to 2.66 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sevilla's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Girona had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Girona and 0.50 for Sevilla.

What was the final score of Girona vs Sevilla?

Girona 1-2 Sevilla in the Spain - Primera Liga on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Girona vs Sevilla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Girona win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Girona 50%, draw 26%, Sevilla 24%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Girona) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Girona) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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