Girona 5-1 Sevilla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.8
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.25
2-3 Goals
41%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
3.03
6+ Goals
9%
9.38
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.25 — our 25% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.34
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
14%
4.29
X/2
9%
8.37
X/X
6%
5.52
2/1
7%
21.75
2/2
12%
5.88
2/X
9%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
52%
-2.8pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.1pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.6pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Girona EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Sevilla EU Bookmakers 28%
+3% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
1.76/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.44
+42% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +20%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
30.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
23.0 Crosses 19.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Girona
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Sevilla
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.44 xG 1.70
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
313 Passes 396
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.08.2023 Sevilla Sevilla 1-2 HT 1-1 Girona Girona İS1
01.05.2023 Sevilla Sevilla 0-2 HT 0-1 Girona Girona İS1
14.01.2023 Girona Girona 2-1 HT 0-1 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
28.04.2019 Girona Girona 1-0 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
16.12.2018 Sevilla Sevilla 2-0 HT 0-0 Girona Girona İS1
11.02.2018 Sevilla Sevilla 1-0 HT 0-0 Girona Girona İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Girona
5-1
AWAY Sevilla
2.29 xG 0.66
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
504 Passes 389
89% Pass Accuracy 86%
28 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 27
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Girona vs Sevilla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Girona ran out comfortable winners over Sevilla 5-1. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Girona as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Girona had 55% of the ball to Sevilla's 45%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 2.29 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Girona had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Girona and 0.83 for Sevilla.

What was the final score of Girona vs Sevilla?

Girona 5-1 Sevilla in the Spain - Primera Liga on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Girona vs Sevilla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Girona win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Girona 49%, draw 22%, Sevilla 29%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Girona), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Girona) ✓ Over 2.5
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