Real Madrid 3-2 Almeria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 21 Jan 2024

Real Madrid
3-2 HT 0-2
Almeria
📅21/01/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2025/2026

Real Madrid vs Almeria Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.16
Draw
18%
7.13
Away
13%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
3.14
Over 2.5
60%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.99
No
56%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
8.19
2-3 Goals
41%
2.33
4-5 Goals
27%
2.4
6+ Goals
13%
4.19
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.22
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
4%
34.0
X/1
27%
3.56
X/2
5%
34.0
X/X
7%
13.2
2/1
6%
22.6
2/2
4%
28.0
2/X
7%
33.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
82%
-12.8pp
17%
Draw
11%
+6.1pp
13%
Away Win
7%
+6.7pp
40%
Under 2.5
28%
+11.9pp
60%
Over 2.5
72%
-12.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
46%
-2.5pp
56%
BTTS No
54%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid v Almeria — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Almeria EU Bookmakers 9%
-4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
2.28/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/2.21
+12% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / -25%
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
500 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
39.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
19.3 Crosses 12.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8

Real Madrid vs Almeria Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Almeria
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.34 xG 1.13
62% Ball Possession 38%
22 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
512 Passes 283
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
48 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.08.2023 Almeria Almeria 1-3 HT 1-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
29.04.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-2 HT 3-1 Almeria Almeria İS1
14.08.2022 Almeria Almeria 1-2 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
29.04.2015 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-0 HT 1-0 Almeria Almeria İS1
12.12.2014 Almeria Almeria 1-4 HT 1-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
12.04.2014 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-0 HT 1-0 Almeria Almeria İS1

Real Madrid 3-2 Almeria — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
3-2
AWAY Almeria
2.24 xG 0.89
74% Ball Possession 26%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
553 Passes 147
87% Pass Accuracy 64%
56 Box Touches 11
33 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Almeria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid nicked a narrow win over Almeria 3-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Real Madrid had 74% of the ball to Almeria's 26%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 2.24 to 0.89 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Real Madrid's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Real Madrid and 0.83 for Almeria.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Almeria?

Real Madrid 3-2 Almeria in the Spain - Primera Liga on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Almeria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 69%, draw 17%, Almeria 13%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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