Atletico Madrid 3-1 Leganes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 20 Oct 2024

Atletico Madrid
3-1
Leganes
📅20/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Atletico Madrid vs Leganes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
22%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.74
Over 2.5
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.4
No
55%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.82
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.14
6+ Goals
11%
19.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.75
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
21.85
X/1
17%
3.22
X/2
7%
15.05
X/X
10%
5.35
2/1
10%
28.0
2/2
10%
14.0
2/X
6%
23.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
66%
-10.1pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.4pp
22%
Away Win
12%
+9.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
38%
+7.6pp
55%
BTTS No
62%
-7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Madrid v Leganes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Leganes EU Bookmakers 15%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +7%
1.80/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.75
+10% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +31%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
407 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 74%
28.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.2
17.6 Crosses 14.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6

Atletico Madrid vs Leganes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Madrid
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Leganes
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
1.42 xG 0.62
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
421 Passes 290
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 13
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
26.01.2020 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 0-0 HT 0-0 Leganes Leganes İS1
25.08.2019 Leganes Leganes 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
09.03.2019 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-0 HT 0-0 Leganes Leganes İS1
03.11.2018 Leganes Leganes 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
28.02.2018 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 4-0 HT 2-0 Leganes Leganes İS1
30.09.2017 Leganes Leganes 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1

Atletico Madrid 3-1 Leganes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid
3-1
AWAY Leganes
63% Ball Possession 37%
24 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
485 Passes 260
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
POST-MATCH Atletico Madrid vs Leganes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid beat Leganes 3-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Madrid had 63% of the ball to Leganes's 37%, shots finished 24-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.17 for Leganes.

What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Leganes?

Atletico Madrid 3-1 Leganes in the Spain - Primera Liga on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Leganes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 56%, draw 22%, Leganes 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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