Hamburg 1-0 Köln — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 18 Jan 2025

Hamburg
1-0 HT 0-0
Köln
📅18/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Hamburg vs Köln Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.33
Over 2.5
52%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.49
No
47%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.64
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.73
6+ Goals
11%
7.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.13
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
8%
12.4
X/1
12%
5.54
X/2
15%
6.49
X/X
12%
5.63
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.55
2/2
15%
3.99
2/X
6%
12.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.55 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
39%
+9.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
61%
-9.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
63%
-9.7pp
47%
BTTS No
37%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hamburg v Köln — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamburg EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Köln EU Bookmakers 37%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
2.16/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/0.97
+22% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +51%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
312 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 76%
30.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.1
24.3 Crosses 16.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5

Hamburg vs Köln Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hamburg
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Köln
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.62 xG 1.71
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
351 Passes 345
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 25
21 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.08.2024 Köln Köln 1-2 HT 0-2 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
07.01.2023 Köln Köln 4-0 HT 2-0 Hamburg Hamburg HAZ
18.01.2022 Köln Köln 1-1 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AFK
15.04.2019 Köln Köln 1-1 HT 1-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
05.11.2018 Hamburg Hamburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Köln Köln AL2
20.01.2018 Hamburg Hamburg 0-2 HT 0-1 Köln Köln AL1

Hamburg 1-0 Köln — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hamburg
1-0
AWAY Köln
1.74 xG 0.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 6
311 Passes 347
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
32 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Hamburg vs Köln
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hamburg nicked a narrow win over Köln 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) promised a tight game; Hamburg found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Hamburg had 48% of the ball to Köln's 52%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.74 to 0.50 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Hamburg's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Hamburg and 1.50 for Köln.

What was the final score of Hamburg vs Köln?

Hamburg 1-0 Köln in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamburg vs Köln?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Hamburg 38%, draw 26%, Köln 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hamburg) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hamburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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