Mechelen 1-2 Genk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 18 Jan 2025

Mechelen
1-2 HT 1-2
Genk
📅18/01/2025 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2024/2025

Mechelen vs Genk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
35%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.0
Over 2.5
55%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.61
No
41%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.66
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
26%
3.12
6+ Goals
11%
10.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.12
1/2
7%
25.0
1/X
8%
12.6
X/1
13%
6.3
X/2
11%
5.47
X/X
14%
4.9
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
28.0
2/2
16%
3.31
2/X
6%
12.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.0 — our 7% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+4.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.3pp
35%
Away Win
40%
-4.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
46%
-1.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
54%
+1.5pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+1.3pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mechelen v Genk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mechelen EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Genk EU Bookmakers 43%
+7% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +13%
1.86/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.01/1.38
+57% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -5%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
323 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 79%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
17.1 Crosses 18.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

Mechelen vs Genk Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mechelen
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Genk
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.29 xG 1.82
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
370 Passes 367
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.09.2024 Genk Genk 2-1 HT 0-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
11.02.2024 Mechelen Mechelen 1-1 HT 1-1 Genk Genk BEL
22.10.2023 Genk Genk 4-0 HT 2-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
17.02.2023 Mechelen Mechelen 2-2 HT 1-1 Genk Genk BEL
28.10.2022 Genk Genk 3-1 HT 1-1 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
21.05.2022 Mechelen Mechelen 0-0 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL

Mechelen 1-2 Genk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mechelen
1-2
AWAY Genk
0.61 xG 0.72
48% Ball Possession 52%
5 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 0
432 Passes 488
86% Pass Accuracy 89%
16 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mechelen vs Genk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genk edged past Mechelen 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Genk found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Mechelen had 48% of the ball to Genk's 52%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 0.61 to 0.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Mechelen and 2.00 for Genk.

What was the final score of Mechelen vs Genk?

Mechelen 1-2 Genk in the Belgium - Pro League on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mechelen vs Genk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mechelen win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Mechelen 38%, draw 27%, Genk 35%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Mechelen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mechelen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BEL More Belgium - Pro League
18 Jan 2025
18:00 Dender EH vs Cercle Brugge Analysis →
22:45 Club Brugge vs Beerschot VA Analysis →