Dunkerque 0-1 Lorient — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 18 Jan 2025

Dunkerque
0-1 HT 0-1
Lorient
📅18/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
France - Ligue 2 – 2024/2025

Dunkerque vs Lorient Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
35%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.75
Over 2.5
40%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.75
No
56%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.9
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.76
6+ Goals
9%
16.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 33% vs market 27.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.13
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
9%
12.3
X/1 EV+ ✗
19%
6.06
X/2
20%
5.66
X/X
12%
4.1
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
9%
3.71
2/X
7%
12.2
Value flag · X/1 at 6.06 — our 19% vs market 12.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+4.0pp
27%
Draw
30%
-2.3pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-1.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
53%
+7.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
47%
-7.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.1pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Dunkerque v Lorient — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dunkerque EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Lorient EU Bookmakers 40%
-2% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +7%
1.12/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/0.83
-10% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +24%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
309 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 79%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
18.8 Crosses 19.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Dunkerque vs Lorient Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dunkerque
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Lorient
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
1.31 xG 2.03
54% Ball Possession 46%
7 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 4
356 Passes 279
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 28
11 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
29.10.2024 Lorient Lorient 4-2 HT 1-2 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2

Dunkerque 0-1 Lorient — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dunkerque
0-1
AWAY Lorient
0.42 xG 2.15
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
415 Passes 310
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Dunkerque vs Lorient
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lorient squeezed past Dunkerque 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Lorient found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Dunkerque had 56% of the ball to Lorient's 44%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.42 to 2.15 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lorient's control.

What was the final score of Dunkerque vs Lorient?

Dunkerque 0-1 Lorient in the France - Ligue 2 on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dunkerque vs Lorient?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dunkerque win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Dunkerque 38%, draw 27%, Lorient 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Dunkerque) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dunkerque) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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