Milan 1-0 Lecce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 18 Jan 2026

Milan
1 - 0 HT 0 - 0
Lecce
📅18/01/2026 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2025/2026

Milan vs Lecce Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
75%
1.3
Draw
16%
4.67
Away
9%
7.88
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
1.87
Over
51%
1.87
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.34
No
58%
1.52
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.2
2-3
46%
1.78
4-5
23%
3.55
6+
6%
14.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
49%
1.58
1/2
1%
35.0
1/X
3%
22.25
X/1
23%
3.6
X/2
4%
18.8
X/X
10%
6.26
2/1
3%
27.0
2/2
4%
18.25
2/X
3%
26.5
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
Our Pick = the view of our model: the outcome it rates most likely. A forecast, not a bet.

Milan v Lecce — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Milan The Market 77%
Signal
AWAY Lecce The Market 13%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
2.26 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 0.61
0.81 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.96
Average Attack Strength Weak
Average Defense Strength Strong
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
470 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 76%
33 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13
23 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2

Milan vs Lecce Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Lecce
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.42 xG 0.65
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
503 Passes 264
89% Pass Accuracy 82%
30 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.09.2025 Milan Milan 3-0 HT 1-0 Lecce Lecce İTK
29.08.2025 Lecce Lecce 0-2 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
08.03.2025 Lecce Lecce 2-3 HT 1-0 Milan Milan İTA
27.09.2024 Milan Milan 3-0 HT 3-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
06.04.2024 Milan Milan 3-0 HT 2-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
11.11.2023 Lecce Lecce 2-2 HT 0-2 Milan Milan İTA

Milan 1-0 Lecce — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
1 - 0
AWAY Lecce
3.40 xG 0.17
69% Ball Possession 31%
20 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 0
10 Corners 2
633 Passes 235
92% Pass Accuracy 76%
42 Box Touches 8
23 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
REVIEW Milan vs Lecce
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Milan nicked a narrow win over Lecce 1-0. It stood 0-0 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 75%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals call finished the job: no to both teams scoring (58%) landed.

On the day, Milan had 69% of the ball to Lecce's 31%, shots finished 20-3, expected goals 3.40 to 0.17 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Milan's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Milan and 0.67 for Lecce.

Milan vs Lecce Result & Final Score

Milan 1 - 0 Lecce in the Italy - Serie A on 18/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Milan vs Lecce Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 75%, with the full match-result split Milan 75%, draw 16%, Lecce 9%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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