Ümraniyespor 1-3 Eyüpspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.65
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
51%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.95
Over 2.5
45%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.56
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.31
6+ Goals
10%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.56 — our 31% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
8.24
1/2
9%
22.9
1/X
6%
15.8
X/1
12%
10.55
X/2
22%
3.83
X/X
11%
5.23
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
19%
2.02
2/X
7%
14.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
19%
+6.7pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.0pp
51%
Away Win
57%
-6.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.6pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Eyüpspor EU Bookmakers 61%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -13%
0.96/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/0.90
+6% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -21%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
250 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 80%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
18.7 Crosses 20.6
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ümraniyespor
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Eyüpspor
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.27 xG 1.27
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
314 Passes 374
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 32
2 Yellow Cards 1
22.09.2023 Eyüpspor Eyüpspor 2-0 HT 0-0 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
06.03.2022 Eyüpspor Eyüpspor 0-1 HT 0-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
16.10.2021 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 2-2 HT 1-2 Eyüpspor Eyüpspor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ümraniyespor
1-3
AWAY Eyüpspor
1.25 xG 3.54
30% Ball Possession 70%
6 Total Shots 29
3 Shots on Target 8
0 Corners 12
228 Passes 603
77% Pass Accuracy 92%
5 Box Touches 57
5 Crosses 40
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ümraniyespor vs Eyüpspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Eyüpspor got the better of Ümraniyespor 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Eyüpspor as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ümraniyespor had 30% of the ball to Eyüpspor's 70%, shots finished 6-29, expected goals 1.25 to 3.54.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ümraniyespor and 1.33 for Eyüpspor.

What was the final score of Ümraniyespor vs Eyüpspor?

Ümraniyespor 1-3 Eyüpspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ümraniyespor vs Eyüpspor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Eyüpspor win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Ümraniyespor 25%, draw 24%, Eyüpspor 51%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Eyüpspor) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Eyüpspor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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