Lugazi Municipal 1-0 UPDF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 18 Feb 2026

📅18/02/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
22%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.54
Over 2.5
42%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.19
No
53%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
24%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
51%
+2.3pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.1pp
22%
Away Win
22%
-0.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
61%
-2.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
39%
+2.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.9pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugazi Municipal EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY UPDF EU Bookmakers 25%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.84/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.33
+31% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +71% / +0%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
376 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugazi Municipal
0W-1D-2L
AWAY UPDF
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
6 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
05.12.2025 UPDF UPDF 2-0 HT 1-0 Lugazi Municipal UGA
11.04.2025 Lugazi Municipal 2-2 HT 0-1 UPDF UPDF UGA
19.09.2024 UPDF UPDF 1-0 HT 0-0 Lugazi Municipal UGA
POST-MATCH Lugazi Municipal vs UPDF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugazi Municipal nicked a narrow win over UPDF 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lugazi Municipal as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, UPDF led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Lugazi Municipal and 1.67 for UPDF.

What was the final score of Lugazi Municipal vs UPDF?

Lugazi Municipal 1-0 UPDF in the Uganda - Premier League on 18/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugazi Municipal vs UPDF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugazi Municipal win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Lugazi Municipal 53%, draw 25%, UPDF 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugazi Municipal), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lugazi Municipal) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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