Khimki 1-3 Neftekhimik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 18 Mar 2024

📅18/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.64
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
27%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.67
Over 2.5
34%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.09
No
60%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
57%
-14.0pp
30%
Draw
25%
+5.2pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+8.8pp
66%
Under 2.5
56%
+9.8pp
34%
Over 2.5
44%
-9.8pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.0pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Khimki EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftekhimik EU Bookmakers 21%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -6%
1.22/0.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.24
-26% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
346 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Khimki
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Neftekhimik
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
55% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
30.07.2023 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik 0-1 HT 0-0 Khimki Khimki RUS1
15.03.2020 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik 2-2 HT 1-1 Khimki Khimki RUS1
18.08.2019 Khimki Khimki 3-2 HT 1-1 Neftekhimik Neftekhimik RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Khimki
1-3
AWAY Neftekhimik
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Khimki vs Neftekhimik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftekhimik saw off Khimki 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Khimki at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Khimki had 66% of the ball to Neftekhimik's 34%, shots finished 16-8.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Khimki had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Khimki and 1.33 for Neftekhimik.

What was the final score of Khimki vs Neftekhimik?

Khimki 1-3 Neftekhimik in the Russia - FNL on 18/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Khimki vs Neftekhimik?

Before kick-off our model rated a Khimki win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Khimki 43%, draw 30%, Neftekhimik 27%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Khimki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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