Atletico Tucuman 1-2 Velez Sarsfield — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 18 Mar 2025

📅18/03/2025 · 🕒03:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
26%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.45
Over 2.5
39%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.16
No
57%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.0
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
5.69
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.57
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.5
X/1
19%
4.82
X/2
12%
6.08
X/X
19%
3.43
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
8%
5.09
2/X
5%
14.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
40%
+3.2pp
31%
Draw
31%
-0.2pp
26%
Away Win
29%
-2.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
65%
-4.1pp
39%
Over 2.5
35%
+4.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.1pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Tucuman EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Velez Sarsfield EU Bookmakers 32%
+5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +3%
1.28/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.07
+8% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
270 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 75%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
22.6 Crosses 16.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Tucuman
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Velez Sarsfield
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.08 xG 0.97
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
224 Passes 332
66% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.06.2024 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Tucuman Atletico Tucuman ARJ
03.03.2024 Atletico Tucuman Atletico Tucuman 0-0 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
10.10.2023 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 3-1 HT 3-0 Atletico Tucuman Atletico Tucuman ARJ
21.02.2023 Atletico Tucuman Atletico Tucuman 1-1 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
03.07.2022 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Tucuman Atletico Tucuman ARJ
03.08.2021 Atletico Tucuman Atletico Tucuman 0-0 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Tucuman
1-2
AWAY Velez Sarsfield
1.37 xG 1.34
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 1
307 Passes 257
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
32 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Atletico Tucuman vs Velez Sarsfield
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Velez Sarsfield edged past Atletico Tucuman 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Tucuman at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Tucuman had 55% of the ball to Velez Sarsfield's 45%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.37 to 1.34.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Atletico Tucuman and 0.83 for Velez Sarsfield.

What was the final score of Atletico Tucuman vs Velez Sarsfield?

Atletico Tucuman 1-2 Velez Sarsfield in the Argentina - Premier League on 18/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Tucuman vs Velez Sarsfield?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Tucuman win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Atletico Tucuman 43%, draw 31%, Velez Sarsfield 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Tucuman) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ARJ More Argentina - Premier League
18 Mar 2025
01:00 Atletico Tigre vs Central Cordoba Santiago Analysis →
01:00 Union Santa Fe vs Banfield Analysis →
03:15 San Martin San Juan vs Platense Analysis →