Vermont Green 1-0 Portland Hearts of Pine — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 18 Mar 2026

📅18/03/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
40%
Away Win
44%
-3.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.5pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vermont Green EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Portland Hearts of Pine EU Bookmakers 48%
+58% / +58% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+150% / -53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
329 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 82%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
8.0 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vermont Green
1-0
AWAY Portland Hearts of Pine
2.18 xG 0.53
39% Ball Possession 61%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 3
194 Passes 419
68% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vermont Green vs Portland Hearts of Pine
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vermont Green edged past Portland Hearts of Pine 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 26% / 40% — and on the day Vermont Green made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Vermont Green had 39% of the ball to Portland Hearts of Pine's 61%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 2.18 to 0.53 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Vermont Green's control.

What was the final score of Vermont Green vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

Vermont Green 1-0 Portland Hearts of Pine in the USA - Open Cup on 18/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vermont Green vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

Before kick-off our model rated an Portland Hearts of Pine win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Vermont Green 33%, draw 26%, Portland Hearts of Pine 40%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Portland Hearts of Pine) ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABDK More USA - Open Cup
18 Mar 2026
01:30 Richmond Kickers vs Northern Virginia Analysis →
02:00 Rhode Island vs Faialense Analysis →
02:30 Detroit City vs Michigan Rangers Analysis →
02:30 West Chester Utd vs Loudoun United Analysis →
03:00 Indy Eleven vs Des Moines Menace Analysis →
03:00 Colorado Springs vs Azteca Analysis →