Livingston 5-0 Ayr United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Championship, 18 Apr 2025

Livingston
5-0 HT 3-0
Ayr United
📅18/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Scotland - Championship – 2024/2025

Livingston vs Ayr United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
60%
1.64
Over
40%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
35%
2.53
2-3
38%
1.73
4-5
18%
4.26
6+
9%
21.9
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.53 — our 35% vs market 32.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.14
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.85
X/1
17%
4.78
X/2
13%
6.72
X/X
14%
4.14
2/1
11%
29.5
2/2
11%
5.3
2/X
9%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 60% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-3.7pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.1pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.5pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Livingston v Ayr United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Livingston EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Ayr United EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
1.23/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.55
-19% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
261 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 216 · 65%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Livingston vs Ayr United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Livingston
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Ayr United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
61% Ball Possession 39%
8 Total Shots 2
6 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 3
The Meetings
22.02.2025 Ayr United Ayr United 1-2 HT 0-1 Livingston Livingston İKCL
21.12.2024 Livingston Livingston 0-1 HT 0-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
19.10.2024 Ayr United Ayr United 1-2 Livingston Livingston İKCL
19.08.2023 Livingston Livingston 2-0 HT 1-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKLK
28.11.2020 Livingston Livingston 4-0 HT 4-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKLK
16.07.2019 Livingston Livingston 2-1 HT 1-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKLK
POST-MATCH Livingston vs Ayr United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Livingston ran out comfortable winners over Ayr United 5-0. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Livingston found the edge the numbers couldn't. On goals, no to both teams scoring (55%) landed while under 2.5 goals (60%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Livingston had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Livingston and 0.67 for Ayr United.

What was the final score of Livingston vs Ayr United?

Livingston 5-0 Ayr United in the Scotland - Championship on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Livingston vs Ayr United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Livingston win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Livingston 40%, draw 29%, Ayr United 31%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Livingston), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Livingston) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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