Watford vs Burnley Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Watford v Burnley — Team-Based Signals
Watford vs Burnley Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-1
Watford
İNCL
1-0
HT 1-0
Burnley
İNCL
1-2
HT 1-0
Burnley
İNP
0-0
HT 0-0
Watford
İNP
1-0
HT 0-0
Watford
İNP
Watford 1-2 Burnley — Actual Match Statistics
Burnley squeezed past Watford 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Burnley as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Watford had 34% of the ball to Burnley's 66%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.06 to 1.96.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burnley led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Watford and 1.00 for Burnley.
What was the final score of Watford vs Burnley?
Watford 1-2 Burnley in the England - Championship on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Watford vs Burnley?
Before kick-off our model rated an Burnley win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Watford 23%, draw 31%, Burnley 46%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burnley) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.