Blackburn Rovers 4-1 Millwall — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 18 Apr 2025

📅18/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
60%
1.68
Over 2.5
40%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.7
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.15
6+ Goals
8%
20.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.7 — our 33% vs market 30.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.16
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
18%
4.88
X/2
9%
6.68
X/X
16%
4.23
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
14%
5.14
2/X
7%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.5pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.6pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+1.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.5pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Blackburn Rovers EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Millwall EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +15%
1.47/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.22
+6% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +30%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
324 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 74%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
17.3 Crosses 16.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Blackburn Rovers
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Millwall
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.21 xG 0.93
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
405 Passes 252
77% Pass Accuracy 70%
22 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
21.12.2024 Millwall Millwall 1-0 HT 0-0 Blackburn Rovers Blackburn Rovers İNCL
05.03.2024 Blackburn Rovers Blackburn Rovers 1-1 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
24.10.2023 Millwall Millwall 1-2 HT 1-1 Blackburn Rovers Blackburn Rovers İNCL
08.05.2023 Millwall Millwall 3-4 HT 3-1 Blackburn Rovers Blackburn Rovers İNCL
01.10.2022 Blackburn Rovers Blackburn Rovers 2-1 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
08.03.2022 Blackburn Rovers Blackburn Rovers 0-0 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Blackburn Rovers
4-1
AWAY Millwall
1.78 xG 1.43
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 6
342 Passes 159
79% Pass Accuracy 59%
27 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Blackburn Rovers ran out comfortable winners over Millwall 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 31%) promised a tight game; Blackburn Rovers found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Blackburn Rovers had 62% of the ball to Millwall's 38%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 1.78 to 1.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Blackburn Rovers had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Blackburn Rovers and 1.17 for Millwall.

What was the final score of Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall?

Blackburn Rovers 4-1 Millwall in the England - Championship on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall?

Before kick-off our model rated a Blackburn Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Blackburn Rovers 40%, draw 30%, Millwall 31%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Blackburn Rovers) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Blackburn Rovers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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