Middlesbrough 2-1 Plymouth Argyle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 18 Apr 2025

Middlesbrough
2-1 HT 1-1
Plymouth Argyle
📅18/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Middlesbrough vs Plymouth Argyle Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.37
Draw
26%
4.62
Away
22%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
2.38
Over 2.5
41%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.81
No OUR CALL
62%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
4.81
2-3 Goals
43%
1.94
4-5 Goals
18%
2.74
6+ Goals
8%
7.14
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.81 — our 31% vs market 15.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.63
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
18.3
X/1
12%
3.99
X/2
7%
15.65
X/X
13%
7.52
2/1
11%
20.55
2/2
10%
12.65
2/X
8%
21.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
BTTS No — 62% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
69%
-16.9pp
27%
Draw
19%
+7.9pp
22%
Away Win
13%
+8.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
38%
+21.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
62%
-21.2pp
38%
BTTS Yes
51%
-12.9pp
62%
BTTS No
49%
+13.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Middlesbrough v Plymouth Argyle — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 16%
-6% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.57/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.92
-14% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / -10%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
433 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 73%
30.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
19.9 Crosses 9.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5

Middlesbrough vs Plymouth Argyle Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middlesbrough
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Plymouth Argyle
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
1.67 xG 2.00
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
458 Passes 279
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
31 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.12.2024 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 3-3 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
24.02.2024 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-2 HT 0-2 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
04.11.2023 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 3-3 HT 2-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
05.04.2010 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 0-2 HT 0-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
31.10.2009 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-1 HT 0-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL

Middlesbrough 2-1 Plymouth Argyle — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough
2-1
AWAY Plymouth Argyle
2.98 xG 2.09
75% Ball Possession 25%
22 Total Shots 19
8 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 1
531 Passes 129
85% Pass Accuracy 63%
46 Box Touches 27
26 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough vs Plymouth Argyle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Middlesbrough nicked a narrow win over Plymouth Argyle 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Middlesbrough as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Middlesbrough had 75% of the ball to Plymouth Argyle's 25%, shots finished 22-19, expected goals 2.98 to 2.09.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Plymouth Argyle led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.80 for Plymouth Argyle.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Plymouth Argyle?

Middlesbrough 2-1 Plymouth Argyle in the England - Championship on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Plymouth Argyle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 52%, draw 27%, Plymouth Argyle 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Middlesbrough) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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