Middlesbrough 0-2 Plymouth Argyle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 24 Feb 2024

Middlesbrough
0-2 HT 0-2
Plymouth Argyle
📅24/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2023/2024

Middlesbrough vs Plymouth Argyle Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home OUR CALL
57%
1.49
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.38
Over 2.5
54%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.66
No
52%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
5.15
2-3 Goals
36%
1.97
4-5 Goals
27%
2.73
6+ Goals
10%
6.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.15 — our 27% vs market 14.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.78
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.7
X/1
22%
3.84
X/2
7%
12.9
X/X
8%
6.91
2/1
7%
20.1
2/2
11%
9.18
2/X
6%
17.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Middlesbrough win — 57% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
63%
-5.7pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.6pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.3pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Middlesbrough v Plymouth Argyle — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 20%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -8%
1.72/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.46
-6% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -9%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
398 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 75%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
21.9 Crosses 10.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4

Middlesbrough vs Plymouth Argyle Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middlesbrough
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Plymouth Argyle
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.56 xG 1.03
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
449 Passes 340
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
33 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.11.2023 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 3-3 HT 2-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
05.04.2010 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 0-2 HT 0-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
31.10.2009 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-1 HT 0-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL

Middlesbrough 0-2 Plymouth Argyle — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough
0-2
AWAY Plymouth Argyle
0.55 xG 1.93
68% Ball Possession 32%
11 Total Shots 22
0 Shots on Target 11
6 Corners 6
531 Passes 187
83% Pass Accuracy 64%
23 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough vs Plymouth Argyle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Plymouth Argyle saw off Middlesbrough 2-0 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Middlesbrough at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Middlesbrough had 68% of the ball to Plymouth Argyle's 32%, shots finished 11-22, expected goals 0.55 to 1.93.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.33 for Plymouth Argyle.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Plymouth Argyle?

Middlesbrough 0-2 Plymouth Argyle in the England - Championship on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Plymouth Argyle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 57%, draw 20%, Plymouth Argyle 23%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Middlesbrough), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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