Plymouth Argyle vs Middlesbrough Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Plymouth Argyle v Middlesbrough — Team-Based Signals
Plymouth Argyle vs Middlesbrough Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
3-3
HT 2-1
Middlesbrough
İNCL
0-2
HT 0-1
Middlesbrough
İNCL
0-1
HT 0-0
Plymouth Argyle
İNCL
Plymouth Argyle 3-3 Middlesbrough — Actual Match Statistics
Plymouth Argyle and Middlesbrough shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Middlesbrough at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Plymouth Argyle had 45% of the ball to Middlesbrough's 55%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 3.05 to 1.91.
Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Plymouth Argyle had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Plymouth Argyle and 1.25 for Middlesbrough.
What was the final score of Plymouth Argyle vs Middlesbrough?
Plymouth Argyle 3-3 Middlesbrough in the England - Championship on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Plymouth Argyle vs Middlesbrough?
Before kick-off our model rated an Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Plymouth Argyle 29%, draw 25%, Middlesbrough 46%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Middlesbrough), Under 2.5 went the other way.