Plymouth Argyle 3-3 Middlesbrough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 21 Dec 2024

📅21/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.65
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
46%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
53%
2.43
Over 2.5
47%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
22%
5.03
2-3 Goals
48%
1.93
4-5 Goals
20%
2.65
6+ Goals
10%
6.62
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.03 — our 22% vs market 14.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
8.05
1/2
7%
20.1
1/X
6%
16.2
X/1
10%
11.6
X/2
8%
4.02
X/X
13%
6.77
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
31%
1.91
2/X
6%
15.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
18%
+10.6pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.6pp
46%
Away Win
60%
-14.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
38%
+15.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
62%
-15.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.5pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 64%
+13% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -18%
1.07/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.07/0.98
+83% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +65% / -48%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
302 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 81%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.1
16.0 Crosses 16.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Plymouth Argyle
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Middlesbrough
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.48 xG 1.56
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
264 Passes 490
73% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.02.2024 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-2 HT 0-2 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
04.11.2023 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 3-3 HT 2-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
05.04.2010 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 0-2 HT 0-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
31.10.2009 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-1 HT 0-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Plymouth Argyle
3-3
AWAY Middlesbrough
3.05 xG 1.91
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
309 Passes 395
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 36
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Plymouth Argyle vs Middlesbrough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Plymouth Argyle and Middlesbrough shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Middlesbrough at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Plymouth Argyle had 45% of the ball to Middlesbrough's 55%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 3.05 to 1.91.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Plymouth Argyle had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Plymouth Argyle and 1.25 for Middlesbrough.

What was the final score of Plymouth Argyle vs Middlesbrough?

Plymouth Argyle 3-3 Middlesbrough in the England - Championship on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Plymouth Argyle vs Middlesbrough?

Before kick-off our model rated an Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Plymouth Argyle 29%, draw 25%, Middlesbrough 46%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Middlesbrough), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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