Burnley 2-1 Watford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 21 Dec 2024

Burnley
2-1 HT 1-0
Watford
📅21/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Burnley vs Watford Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
29%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.62
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.18
6+ Goals
11%
21.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.28
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.9
X/1
18%
3.82
X/2
9%
9.59
X/X
16%
4.47
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
15%
8.2
2/X
5%
16.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
54%
-10.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
29%
Away Win
20%
+9.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.8pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Burnley v Watford — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burnley EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Watford EU Bookmakers 22%
+6% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.36/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.69
+2% / +138% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -21%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
390 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 72%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
22.1 Crosses 14.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4

Burnley vs Watford Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burnley
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Watford
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.39 xG 0.71
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
330 Passes 229
73% Pass Accuracy 68%
20 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
14.02.2023 Burnley Burnley 1-1 HT 0-1 Watford Watford İNCL
12.08.2022 Watford Watford 1-0 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNCL
30.04.2022 Watford Watford 1-2 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
05.02.2022 Burnley Burnley 0-0 HT 0-0 Watford Watford İNP
25.06.2020 Burnley Burnley 1-0 HT 0-0 Watford Watford İNP
23.11.2019 Watford Watford 0-3 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNP

Burnley 2-1 Watford — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burnley
2-1
AWAY Watford
1.20 xG 0.62
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
373 Passes 287
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Burnley vs Watford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burnley squeezed past Watford 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Burnley as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Burnley had 55% of the ball to Watford's 45%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.20 to 0.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burnley had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Burnley and 0.50 for Watford.

What was the final score of Burnley vs Watford?

Burnley 2-1 Watford in the England - Championship on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burnley vs Watford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burnley win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Burnley 44%, draw 26%, Watford 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burnley) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Burnley) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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