Treaty United 1-1 Dundalk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 18 Apr 2025

📅18/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.48
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
48%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.91
Over 2.5
42%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.82
No
57%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
3.3
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
3.33
6+ Goals
9%
12.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 36% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
23%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
20%
+6.1pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.6pp
48%
Away Win
56%
-7.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.6pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Treaty United EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Dundalk EU Bookmakers 60%
+18% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
1.50/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/0.01
+29% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / +150%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
231 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Treaty United
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Dundalk
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 3
07.03.2025 Dundalk Dundalk 2-2 HT 1-0 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
25.07.2021 Treaty United Treaty United 0-1 HT 0-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Treaty United
1-1
AWAY Dundalk
34% Ball Possession 66%
5 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Treaty United vs Dundalk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Treaty United and Dundalk shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Dundalk at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Treaty United had 34% of the ball to Dundalk's 66%, shots finished 5-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Dundalk led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Treaty United and 1.50 for Dundalk.

What was the final score of Treaty United vs Dundalk?

Treaty United 1-1 Dundalk in the Ireland - 1st Division on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Treaty United vs Dundalk?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dundalk win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Treaty United 26%, draw 26%, Dundalk 48%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Dundalk), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dundalk) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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