Finn Harps 4-2 Kerry — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 18 Apr 2025

📅18/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
34%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.67
Over 2.5
51%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.6
2-3 Goals
42%
1.73
4-5 Goals
21%
4.16
6+ Goals
10%
20.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-1.9pp
23%
Draw
28%
-4.6pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+6.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
56%
-6.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
44%
+6.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.0pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Finn Harps EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Kerry EU Bookmakers 31%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.24/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.43
-19% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
231 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 215 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Finn Harps
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Kerry
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.02.2025 Kerry 2-0 HT 1-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
27.09.2024 Kerry 1-1 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
04.07.2024 Finn Harps Finn Harps 1-0 HT 1-0 Kerry İR1
24.05.2024 Kerry 2-0 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
22.03.2024 Finn Harps Finn Harps 0-0 HT 0-0 Kerry İR1
29.09.2023 Finn Harps Finn Harps 2-1 HT 0-0 Kerry İR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Finn Harps
4-2
AWAY Kerry
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Finn Harps vs Kerry
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Finn Harps got the better of Kerry 4-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Finn Harps as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Finn Harps had 52% of the ball to Kerry's 48%, shots finished 12-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Finn Harps and 1.00 for Kerry.

What was the final score of Finn Harps vs Kerry?

Finn Harps 4-2 Kerry in the Ireland - 1st Division on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Finn Harps vs Kerry?

Before kick-off our model rated a Finn Harps win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Finn Harps 43%, draw 23%, Kerry 33%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Finn Harps), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Finn Harps) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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