Finn Harps 1-0 Kerry — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 4 Jul 2024

📅04/07/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
1.89
Draw
33%
3.35
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.86
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.08
6+ Goals
7%
19.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 35% vs market 29.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
49%
-12.1pp
33%
Draw
27%
+6.1pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.7pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Finn Harps EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Kerry EU Bookmakers 28%
+10% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
1.80/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.33/1.01
+17% / +71% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -73% / +41%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
282 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Finn Harps
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Kerry
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
55% Ball Possession 46%
6 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.05.2024 Kerry 2-0 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
22.03.2024 Finn Harps Finn Harps 0-0 HT 0-0 Kerry İR1
29.09.2023 Finn Harps Finn Harps 2-1 HT 0-0 Kerry İR1
28.07.2023 Kerry 1-2 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
07.04.2023 Kerry 1-1 HT 1-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Finn Harps
1-0
AWAY Kerry
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Finn Harps vs Kerry
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Finn Harps squeezed past Kerry 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 33% / 30% — and on the day Finn Harps made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Finn Harps had 59% of the ball to Kerry's 41%, shots finished 13-11.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Finn Harps had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Finn Harps and 1.00 for Kerry.

What was the final score of Finn Harps vs Kerry?

Finn Harps 1-0 Kerry in the Ireland - 1st Division on 04/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Finn Harps vs Kerry?

Before kick-off our model rated a Finn Harps win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Finn Harps 37%, draw 33%, Kerry 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Finn Harps), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Finn Harps) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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