Malmö FF 1-1 IK Sirius — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 18 Apr 2025

Malmö FF
1-1 HT 0-1
IK Sirius
📅18/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Sweden - Allsvenskan – 2025

Malmö FF vs IK Sirius Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.34
Away
25%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.1
Over 2.5
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.05
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.21
6+ Goals
12%
10.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.21 — our 29% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.72
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
18.5
X/1
16%
3.85
X/2
8%
14.25
X/X
11%
6.64
2/1
8%
22.0
2/2
10%
12.15
2/X
5%
21.15
Value flag · 1/X at 18.5 — our 9% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
66%
-16.0pp
25%
Draw
20%
+5.5pp
25%
Away Win
14%
+10.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.6pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Malmö FF v IK Sirius — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Malmö FF EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY IK Sirius EU Bookmakers 17%
+2% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +6%
1.71/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.62
+7% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
445 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 76%
31.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
22.0 Crosses 14.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Malmö FF vs IK Sirius Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Malmö FF
4W-0D-2L
AWAY IK Sirius
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.45 xG 1.14
62% Ball Possession 38%
22 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
484 Passes 258
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
45 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.07.2024 Malmö FF Malmö FF 0-1 HT 0-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
19.07.2024 IK Sirius IK Sirius 3-4 HT 2-0 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
28.08.2023 IK Sirius IK Sirius 1-3 HT 1-2 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
01.07.2023 Malmö FF Malmö FF 3-0 HT 1-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
07.08.2022 IK Sirius IK Sirius 2-1 HT 1-1 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
23.07.2022 Malmö FF Malmö FF 3-1 HT 1-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ

Malmö FF 1-1 IK Sirius — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Malmö FF
1-1
AWAY IK Sirius
2.41 xG 0.51
66% Ball Possession 34%
19 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 3
533 Passes 244
88% Pass Accuracy 77%
46 Box Touches 10
35 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Malmö FF vs IK Sirius
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Malmö FF and IK Sirius couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Malmö FF at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Malmö FF had 66% of the ball to IK Sirius's 34%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 2.41 to 0.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Malmö FF had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Malmö FF and 1.33 for IK Sirius.

What was the final score of Malmö FF vs IK Sirius?

Malmö FF 1-1 IK Sirius in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Malmö FF vs IK Sirius?

Before kick-off our model rated a Malmö FF win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Malmö FF 50%, draw 25%, IK Sirius 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Malmö FF), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Malmö FF) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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