America Mineiro 3-1 Amazonas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 18 Apr 2025

📅18/04/2025 · 🕒03:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
27%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.71
Over 2.5
41%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.99
No
59%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.72
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
3.95
6+ Goals
10%
18.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.72 — our 34% vs market 29.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
11%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-9.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+9.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
55%
+4.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
45%
-4.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
46%
-5.1pp
59%
BTTS No
54%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME America Mineiro EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Amazonas EU Bookmakers 21%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +8%
1.53/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.01
+12% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / +30%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
349 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 77%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
21.0 Crosses 10.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME America Mineiro
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Amazonas
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.01 xG 0.76
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
386 Passes 278
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.11.2024 Amazonas Amazonas 1-0 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
20.07.2024 America Mineiro America Mineiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Amazonas Amazonas BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME America Mineiro
3-1
AWAY Amazonas
2.03 xG 0.30
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
357 Passes 313
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 12
11 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH America Mineiro vs Amazonas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

America Mineiro beat Amazonas 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had America Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, America Mineiro had 53% of the ball to Amazonas's 47%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 2.03 to 0.30.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Amazonas led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for America Mineiro and 0.50 for Amazonas.

What was the final score of America Mineiro vs Amazonas?

America Mineiro 3-1 Amazonas in the Brazil - Serie B on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for America Mineiro vs Amazonas?

Before kick-off our model rated a America Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split America Mineiro 47%, draw 26%, Amazonas 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (America Mineiro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (America Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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