Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melgar v Deportivo Garcilaso — Team-Based Signals
Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
2-2
HT 1-2
Melgar
PER
2-4
HT 1-3
Deportivo Garcilaso
PER
Melgar 1-2 Deportivo Garcilaso — Actual Match Statistics
Deportivo Garcilaso edged past Melgar 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Melgar at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Melgar had 66% of the ball to Deportivo Garcilaso's 34%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.04 to 1.51.
Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Melgar and 2.00 for Deportivo Garcilaso.
What was the final score of Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Melgar 1-2 Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peru - Premier League on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Melgar 54%, draw 23%, Deportivo Garcilaso 23%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.