Al-Qadsiah 2-1 Al Nassr — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 18 Apr 2025

Al-Qadsiah
2-1 HT 1-0
Al Nassr
📅18/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League – 2024/2025

Al-Qadsiah vs Al Nassr Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
35%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.55
No
51%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.14
2-3 Goals
37%
1.85
4-5 Goals
26%
2.87
6+ Goals
9%
8.44
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.14 — our 28% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
32%
+6.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
35%
Away Win
42%
-7.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+9.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-9.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.5pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Al-Qadsiah v Al Nassr — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al-Qadsiah EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 46%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.35/1.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.10
-3% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / -1%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
281 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 82%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
13.9 Crosses 22.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0

Al-Qadsiah vs Al Nassr Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al-Qadsiah
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Al Nassr
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.90 xG 2.20
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
265 Passes 413
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 36
11 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
22.11.2024 Al Nassr Al Nassr 1-2 HT 1-1 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah SUUD
18.02.2021 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah 1-0 HT 1-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
07.11.2020 Al Nassr Al Nassr 2-0 HT 0-0 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah SUUD
06.02.2019 Al Nassr Al Nassr 3-1 HT 1-0 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah SUUD
19.09.2018 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah 0-3 HT 0-2 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
12.04.2018 Al Nassr Al Nassr 2-1 HT 0-1 Al-Qadsiah Al-Qadsiah SUUD

Al-Qadsiah 2-1 Al Nassr — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al-Qadsiah
2-1
AWAY Al Nassr
1.39 xG 1.24
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
250 Passes 461
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 22
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Al-Qadsiah vs Al Nassr
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al-Qadsiah squeezed past Al Nassr 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Al-Qadsiah found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Al-Qadsiah had 38% of the ball to Al Nassr's 62%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.39 to 1.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Nassr led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Al-Qadsiah and 1.83 for Al Nassr.

What was the final score of Al-Qadsiah vs Al Nassr?

Al-Qadsiah 2-1 Al Nassr in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al-Qadsiah vs Al Nassr?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al-Qadsiah win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Al-Qadsiah 38%, draw 26%, Al Nassr 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al-Qadsiah) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al-Qadsiah) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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